WHAT THE HECK

Short term Aussie

Here is my short or medium term Aussie update, depending on how you trade...................According to all of the things that I track, then the Aussie is going down soon..........It looks like we have just completed an Elliott Wave A,B,C corrective pattern.............This means that this pair will be going down hard very soon.........

Aussie Update 11/24/2011

Here is my Aussie update today.  I think that wave 3 is over or almost over and we should see a bounce for wave 4.  There is some confluence around the .9915 area, so I think that is where it's going.  I will state something about Elliott Wave analysis for those that don't know this.  Wave patterns are predictible but the size of the waves is not using Elliott Wave.  This is why I and other Elliotticians use other technical indicators to predict the size of the waves.  Anyway here are the charts.  The 1 hour, 3 hour, and the daily charts.  Please ask any questions and I will answer them.

Good Trading Everyone,

JahDave

WOW, I haven't posted in a long Time

Here are my Aussie charts for this weekend. The Daily is still ripping to the upside, but the shorter term charts show a different picture. If my wave count is correct then this is due to reverse very soon. I will be selling at the 1.0322. If you wanted some more confirmation then you could sell at the 1.0280. Both of these points are below the last 2 support points. Either way this pair is going down for a nice move soon. Whatever you do, don't try to chase this market and take a long position at this point.The daily is about to collide with the 200ma and the 5 minute charts have a lot of confluence pointing to a reversal.  I am looking to long USD across hte board next week after some confirmation.

EUR_AUD 08_07_2011

OK Everyone,

Here is the AUD_USD 1 hour chart.  The 1.3800 area was the resistance for this pair on 3 different time frames and the hour chart was a Fibonacci 3.618 extension from the "A" wave, so it can't extend from here without a sizeable pull back. I had a market order in to sell at 1.3800, so I am in short.  Based on the wave structure, I don't think this is an impulse wave up but rather a triple 3, and a triple pattern is the maximum allowed by Elliott Wave rules.  This means that this pair should go much lower and make at least a  new medium term low.

Kiwi July 2011

Here is a 5 minute, 1 hour, and 1 day NZD_USD chart.  The daily shows no sign of weakness yet.  There is a spike on the last 1 hour candle, and there is a gap under that candle as well.  The highest probability is that thae gap will close and hold support.  On the five minute charts there is a nice shooting star to end the trading day.   So it looks like there will be some down to start the week, but it will probably move up to new highs after that.

The DOW update

I don't trade stocks at all, but I watch the Dow because when it is going up then the USD is usually going down.  Today the DOW went up hard and the USD did not go down much.  Every time I see this it seems that currencies are leading and the DOW is going to fall hard very soon.  When it falls the USD goes into the impulsive up mode............This is in line with what my posts said last night...........I think a top is in place and the USD is getting ready to make a very strong move up across the board............The Dow 3 hour chart I am posting looks like a leading diagonal down from what I see.  The reason for this assessment is that the down moves are in 3 waves and the only impulse waves that this fits is a leading diagonal and an ending diagonal, and obviously this is not an ending diagonal.

Euro percentage bands

The Euro is still going up at the moment, but on the percentage band chart I am posting is showing a spike over the top band which means a hard reversal, and the trix indicator is showing divergence to the downside.

Kiwi update

The Kiwi is flying way too high over the Ichimoku cloud and also it is finishing up an extended "C" wave on the hourly charts.  This pair is in for a huge reversal here and I just sold into it.

Euro Update 6_29_2011

My 6_27 post stated that my projection for the Euro was up to 1.4500 and it just made the 1.4502.  I am shorting the Euro now and I will be looking for at least 600 pips, down to the 1.3900 area.

USD_CHF

Here are my thoughts on the Swiss Franc.  I bought it today at .8281.  One of my posts several weeks ago said that my target was somewhere between .83 and .80 and that fibo time was showing a major reversal at the middle of July and that was not totally reliable, so I thought it may reverse around the end of June, and I think it has.  I am posting up a five minute chart of the USD_CHF that is almost looking impulsive up.   I will keep watching it and will decide where it is going based on wave patterns.

Very Long Term Euro

I think the chart says it all, but ask any questions................ This looks like a leading diagonal on the monthly charts................Classic Elliott Wave.............

Euro short term 06_27_2011

My analysis is that the Euro is starting down in a "B" wave before it makes the final "C" wave up to the 1.4500 area.   After that then we should see a good push down below 1.3900.  I will have to watch wave patterns back down to see if it is impulsive or corrective on a bigger scale, but if it is impulsive down it will make it down to around 1.2000.

EW update for 06_27_2011

I don't like the look of this, because the EW patterns are showing more highs after the lows that are coming up............Here are the daily Kiwi, Aussie and the Euro charts. The moves down on all three are in threes , and that is corrective................This means more USD weakness.............and I don't like it..............but that is what the charts are saying and I always believe the chart patterns........

Good Trading,
JahDave

Euro Short term

The Euro has had a large wave 2 bounce, but it is under pressure again tonight......I am scalping tonight and I am posting up a 3 minute chart that I just sold from........

Euro 6-22-2011 Update

I said last night that I thought the Euro had topped, but ti didn't quite top last night,,,,,,as usual I was in a little early,,,,but not that much........All of my Euro charts are showing a lot of Euro weakness,,,,,,,,,although at the moment it should be catching about a 40 or 50 pip bounce............After this is over then it should accelerate to the downside............ It has a lot of room to run to the downside and not much room to move up...........

Euro 6-21-2011

I missed things a little on my last forecast.......... I had the count labeled, but the channel looked so nice going down, then I changed my count.  I was looking for some more down and then back up into the area it is in right now......This is probably the entire correction (topping at 1.4432) and now it should start going down impulsively, (in 5's), but this could be just the "A" leg of a large flat...........At any rate it should see some more down and can be determined from there if this is impulsive or corrective...........Also the stochastic fractal has been giving good signals throughout this entire move (up & down) and right now it says sell..........

Good Trading,
Dave

Euro Update 6_16_2011

  If the Euro stays in this down channel then it should have one more move down pretty soon, and this will be wave 5 and when completed this will be wave 1 one a larger scale.  If anyone is not familiar with fractals then you should be.  Elliott Wave understands that the markets are fractals, (meaning that wave patterns are continuously playing out on every possible time scale simultaneously).  On this chart chart I am posting, I only have 2 scales labeled.  Anyway, enough rambling.  This should stay in the channel for one more move down to around the 1.39 and then go back up somewhere in the 1.44 - 1.45 range, for wave 2 on the larger scale.  The exciting part about that is usually wave 3 is the strongest wave of all, so after wave 2 finishes then it break down fast and hard.  Fibo time is showing that will be happening about the middle of July.

June 15 2011 Euro Update

My Elliott Wave count shows the Euro in wave 4 at the moment.  Usually wave 4 is more sideways consolidation than a deep retracement, so I am not looking for big move up tonight in the Euro.  I am posting up a few hour charts, and they are all showing oversold on the technical indicators, so I am expecting a move against the USD tonight across the board. Also, my post last night said that that if it broke the pitchfork trendline then it should accelerate to the downside and that did happen.  It was a very good trading day for me as all 8 of my positions went in my favor.  I usually get the majority in my favor, but not all.  I did cash some positions out tonight expecting to get back in tomorrow or Friday or Monday.  Anyway if you have any questions about my charts I am posting, then please ask.

Euro Update June 14 2011

It looks like the Euro is going down again short term.  I still think the odds are good for it to bounce back to the 1.4525/1.4555 area.  Here are a few charts for today.  I am going to post a fibo chart that I don't usually post because I have fibo time, retracement, expansion, & arc...........It probably is overwhelming if you don't study Fibonacci.........Anyway, I hope ya'll like it and it helps you see another useful set of indicators.  Also the daily volume has been very week for the move up which looks good for more strength down, and the stochastic is pointing down.  One last note on the Andrews Pitchfork,,,,,,,,,If it breaks through the downside then it should go lower faster......

6-13-2011 Kiwi Update

Here is today's NZD_USD hour and day chart.  The Kiwi has been flying high lately, but according to my charting, that has come to an end.  It has completed a good Elliott Wave count and now has reversed.  It should be heading into the daily cloud in the next week or so.  Expect a bounce at the top or bottom of the cloud and the next move down after that should break through the bottom of the cloud. Also the stochastic and fractal combined are showing a good short entry on the day and hour chart.  There is a little room up on the hour chart, but not much. This is an example of using other indicators in conjunction with Elliott Wave.  I will restate again that EW is great tool to let you know where  you are in the progress of a move and whether the next move will be up or down.

Euro Update - 06-13-2011

Here are some of my current Euro charts.  My overall opinion is that at the absolute minimum, the Euro is going down below 1.40 on this run.  With that being said as you can tell on every hourly chart, the euro is due for a bounce soon.  My trading strategy at this point will be to add to my already short position when I am fairly confident that the bounce is over.  Please notice that the daily indicators are fully entrenched on a down path now, but the hourly indicators are showing oversold.  My opinion on this is that after the bounce to satisfy the hourly indicators is over, then the daily and hourly and 4 hour momentum indicators should all be lined up in unison for a very strong down move.  This also will coincide with my Elliott Wave count, because I am looking for a wave 3 of wave 3, and this would indicate a very strong move down.  I am putting up a few day and hourly charts.  Please ask if you have any questions.

Long Term USD_CHF

The USD looks like it is making the last leg down for quite a long time.  It should reverse at the .8300 area or the .8000 area.  The next move up should be at least 6000 pips and should last for at least several years.  Fibo time has the bottom of this around the middle of July.........It is not always that accurate so I think it will turn before then.......maybe in several weeks....

Euro hourly percentage bands

Here is the hourly EUR_USD current percentage band chart.  It has broken the bottom band and that is usually a sign of a reversal.  Also at the current time this last move down is in 3 waves. This should be the start of the c wave of wave 2.  After this move up then we should have a very strong move down.  The move up should approach the 1.4400 area...........

May 23, 2011

Here are several charts attached to this post.  Notice in both of these hourly charts that the stochastic fractal is showing it is a good time to buy.......

EUR_USD_05_17_2011

I am going to post up several hour and day charts for the Euro...........I think you can get the picture from the charts............Here are some Euro hour and day charts......The hour charts and even the day charts are showing the euro going up in the near future..... Please notice on the percentage band chart that the Euro is in an ascending wedge on the RSI on the hour chart........This means that the odds are very good that it will break out to the upside and then resume the down trend extremely strong............Also, look at the volume indicator because it has returned to favoring the upside just today..........

Good Trading Everyone,
JahDave