Aussie update

I think the best short this week is the Aussie.   It looks like one more small high and then a very big down based on Elliott Wave.

March 23

I just closed my Euro short for a profit and am waiting to get back in.  The daily looks like there is more room to go up and the hour made it to the median band.  I''ll wait for a high percentage entry.

March 22

The hour candles did go up just a little to briefly poke above the top channel.  That is very normal and Is why I started with a very small position Sunday night.  Also in my previous post I was looking for the red fractal indicator to show up above the modified stochastic and that also happened.  Right now we have a nice 3 waves down, so I am waiting to see if  we get a five down structure.  if we do then I will wait for 3 waves back up and then short a larger position.  Things should accelerate if this happens.  If this move only makes 3 waves down and then makes a new high then the Euro will be going up a while longer.

March 20 Update

I have this indicator I use called percentage bands.  They are show on the Euro hour and day chart here.  Currently they are showing the Euro is almost ready to drop on the hour and day chart.  Also under that is the modified stochastic and the fractal indicator.  The stochastic is in an overbought area, but the sell fractal has not quite shown up yet.  I have opened a very small euro short and am looking to build that as this week progresses.

Good trading everyone,

Dave

Here is an update.

I read today that the Euro is the hardest currency right now to predict.  I don't believe that because I believe in Elliott Wave Theory.  According to the weekly chart then it will go up to about the 1.42 and the down to about the 1.10 level.  The very strange part for me that is it should go back up after that to the 1.50+ level.       Finally after that it should crash below the 1.00 level.  That is the Elliott Wave Long term forecast for 2 to 5 years from now.  After 5 years studying Elliot Wave Theory then the hardest thing is to believe what I see on the charts.  At the present moment then I have learned that when I listen to news then I lose money, but when I follow my charts then I make money.........

EUR_USD March 13 2011

I thought the Euro would top out between 1.3925 and 1.3950, but it has gone up to 1.3978.  I think that should be a top but I am still watching the 1.4027.  If it goes above that level then it will go higher.

In a Box

If the Euro does not make at least 1.3953 then we have failed corrective pattern and then it should still go down........

Euro update

I think the EUR_USD may go up to the 1.3950 area.  After that I think it will start down for a third wave which will be strong.  If it goes up past the 1.4027 then it will go much higher............and I am wrong.........

March Sixth 2011

Here is my Euro Hourly chart for today.  For anyone new reading my blog I will say that I primarily use Elliott Wave Theory for long term forecasts, but use other technical indicators to confirm wave counts.  Right now the chart I am posting has a modified stochastic and a fractal indicator stacked on top of that.  It is showing a very good sell signal.  Here is the very unusual thing about using a modified stochastic with a fractal stacked on top of it.  The fractal indicator is supposed to be used as a continuation indicator, but used on top of a modified stochastic, I have found that it is a much better reversal indicator.

Sometimes I am Wrong

I saw the five wave move up and I thought we would get a flat correction, but instead it looks like the abc down was a running flat and the entire correction should be over.  Now the next five wave move up will be over soon, and the Euro will be crashing hard........

Visual charting

I feel that we understand things from a visual point better than any other way of learning, so I will do things this way mostly.