Long Term USD_CHF

The USD looks like it is making the last leg down for quite a long time.  It should reverse at the .8300 area or the .8000 area.  The next move up should be at least 6000 pips and should last for at least several years.  Fibo time has the bottom of this around the middle of July.........It is not always that accurate so I think it will turn before then.......maybe in several weeks....

Euro hourly percentage bands

Here is the hourly EUR_USD current percentage band chart.  It has broken the bottom band and that is usually a sign of a reversal.  Also at the current time this last move down is in 3 waves. This should be the start of the c wave of wave 2.  After this move up then we should have a very strong move down.  The move up should approach the 1.4400 area...........

May 23, 2011

Here are several charts attached to this post.  Notice in both of these hourly charts that the stochastic fractal is showing it is a good time to buy.......

EUR_USD_05_17_2011

I am going to post up several hour and day charts for the Euro...........I think you can get the picture from the charts............Here are some Euro hour and day charts......The hour charts and even the day charts are showing the euro going up in the near future..... Please notice on the percentage band chart that the Euro is in an ascending wedge on the RSI on the hour chart........This means that the odds are very good that it will break out to the upside and then resume the down trend extremely strong............Also, look at the volume indicator because it has returned to favoring the upside just today..........

Good Trading Everyone,
JahDave

May 15

It looks like I called a probable bottom early as usual..........I do think this week the dollar will drop some across the board because wave 2 will have to come into play at some point soon.........It has never failed yet and I know this time will be no different, but as I have stated before, impulse waves can extend and this one may be doing that.........the implications of an extended wave 1 are good because that is a good clue that mass mood has done a complete reversal...............I have been calling for a reversal for a long time,,,,,,,,,,and not just a correction, but a real reversal that reaches new lows..........In the Euro this means below 1.20 at a minimum..............I am looking for it to go lower than .80 myself, with a good chance that the European Union will break up and the Euro will just collapse and go away forever.................If that happens then you can redeem your Euros for gold at 25%,,,,,,,,,,in theory..........Here is something not really related to trading, but then again everything is related to trading...........I have been watching the network news here and lately I have noticed that it is getting harder in the good ole U.S.A. to decipher the truth..........

May Kiwi, Aussie and Euro

Here is the Kiwi 1 hour chart.  It looks like a very classic Elliott Wave 5 wave impulse pattern which is the first wave on a bigger scale.  The retracement so far is in a very classic corrective abc three wave pattern back up to the Fibonacci 50% retracement.  Normally a wave 2 makes a larger retracement than 50%, so I did 2 wave counts on the corrective wave 2.  All We can do is watch and wait at the moment, but there are a few clues in this.  The biggest clue is that the Kiwi and the Aussie are definitely in a wave 2 or B, but the EUR_USD is just finishing wave 1.  This could mean several things.......The first one is that I favor is the NZD_USD and the AUD_USD is going to make a deeper wave 2 retracement and the Euro will be making a shallower retracement early next week.......The second scenario is that the Kiwi and Aussie have finished wave 2 at the Fibo 50% level and the Euro will have an extension down.......Either way it looks like a long term reversal..........

My Favorite Indicator

My favorite technical indicator is the modified stochastic with a fractal stacked on top of it.  Usually a fractal indicator is placed on a chart and not on another indicator.  It is actually supposed to confirm trend.  I change the values on the stochastic for different pairs and different time frames.  For example,,,,,,,,,,,,what would be a good period for the five minute charts would get you killed on the daily charts.  Mine here on the 1 hour chart is 21 ,13, and 5.  I actually sold a large lot last night because of the five daily dojis that were showing on the chart (and I know technically that all five candles were not dojis).......Anyway when I looked at the 1 hour chart then I had some good confirmation on the stochastic.